AHA Estimates Treatment Costs Will Triple in the United States by 2030

January 24, 2011—The American Heart Association (AHA) announced publication of a policy statement that advised that the cost to treat heart disease in the United States will triple by 2030. Paul A. Heidenreich, MD, chaired the AHA expert panel that issued the statement, which is published online ahead of print in Circulation.

The statement estimated future medical costs based on the current rates of disease and used census data to adjust for anticipated population shifts in age and race. The rigorous methods they devised did not double count costs for patients with multiple heart conditions, the AHA noted.

“Despite the successes in reducing and treating heart disease over the last half century, even if we just maintain our current rates, we will have an enormous financial burden on top of the disease itself,” commented Dr. Heidenreich. “These estimates don't assume that we will continue to make new discoveries to reduce heart disease. If our ability to prevent and treat heart disease stays where we are right now, costs will triple in 20 years just through demographic changes in the population.”

The panel said effective prevention strategies are needed to limit the growing burden of cardiovascular disease.

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death in the United States and accounts for 17% of overall national health expenditures. Currently, 36.95% of the population has some form of heart disease, including high blood pressure, coronary heart disease, heart failure, stroke, and other conditions. By 2030, approximately 116 million people in the United States (40.5%) will have some form of cardiovascular disease. The largest increases are anticipated in stroke (up 24.9%) and heart failure (up 25%).

The statement predicts that the cost of medical care for heart disease (in 2008 dollar values) will rise from $273 billion to $818 billion between 2010 and 2030. Heart disease will also cost the nation billions more in lost productivity, increasing from an estimated $172 billion in 2010 to $276 billion in 2030. Productivity losses include days missed from home or work tasks because of illness and potential lost earnings due to premature death.

“We were all surprised at the remarkable increase in costs that are expected in the next two decades,” stated Dr. Heidenreich. “We need to continue to invest resources in the prevention of disease, the treatment of risk factors, and early treatment of existing disease to reduce that burden.”

“Unhealthy behaviors and unhealthy environments have contributed to a tidal wave of risk factors among many Americans,” said AHA Chief Executive Officer Nancy Brown. “Early intervention and evidence-based public policies are absolute musts to significantly reduce alarming rates of obesity, hypertension, tobacco use, and cholesterol levels.”